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Well. On one hand, the nation's long-running campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

It campaigned for over 36 months for the privilege to host the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have brought many thousands of delegates to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Instead, the conference known as Cop31 is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Conflicting Signals

The result will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped hosting the climate carnival could help speed up the country's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The procedure that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements were ambiguous at best. It translated to stories in the local and global press saying the government was walking away.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the Brazilian city, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for the hosting proposal. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has viewed UN climate conferences a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to secure the hosting rights.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. But there is another way to look at it.

Considering the climate discussions this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the announcement on Wednesday night may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. The Turkish government would be the conference leader, host and effective event manager, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "chief negotiator", managing nearly 200 countries on the stuff that the nations actually turn up for – the discussions on how to together address the climate crisis.

There would also be a increased emphasis on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Grounds for Scepticism

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the international community as having been determined on creating disruption in the international climate negotiations. The system is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to persuade them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had supported the Australian bid.

However, uniquely, Turkey declined to withdraw. The term "bastardry" has been used frequently in recent days, and not only by local commentators.

International Dynamics

Ankara's stubbornness can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no major power with the heft to confront the petroleum exporters that offered the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered close to Vladimir Putin. Several nations worried about a conference hindered from the leadership if his administration managed the discussions. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN climate headquarters in Bonn, which is what would have occurred under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A path through was necessary. International frameworks is imperfect and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the fight against global heating. This joint approach is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for increasing carbon-based exports, climate activists who attend UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been requested to lead negotiation streams at multiple summits he has attended.

This matters. While some have dismissed the role of a "chief negotiator", specialists from academic institutions and veteran observers at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their success.

"Every successful Cop has been determined by a leader holding the pen who can listen, build consensus and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop other than making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unanswered questions. For example, non-governmental organizations plays a vital role at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to stop a crackdown on civil society by the Turkish leadership?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, the nation and the global community. It's worth a try.