From Reluctant Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Maduro.

A unexpected operation on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the seizure of the nation's leader. By the next morning, the foreign force declares its intention to govern indefinitely.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine unfolding in early 2022. Instead, it was the former US president who executed it in Venezuela, in a operation widely condemned internationally, spiriting away the Kremlin's longtime partner the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the effectiveness of a power grab that Moscow itself once planned, but failed to execute due to critical intelligence failures and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The mission was executed with precision,” noted the pro-Kremlin Telegram channel Dva Mayora. “Most likely, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was supposed to proceed: swift, decisive and conclusive. It’s hard to believe [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be fighting for four years.”

These observations have fed a atmosphere of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly conflict.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on Russia's behalf given how audacious the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and apparently concluded his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela sought to cultivate a network of partners opposed to Washington – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – hoping to helping to shape a new axis able to challenge Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister pledging support for Maduro's regime as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, seen other important partners lose influence or deteriorate significantly – from Syria's leader to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's reach.

“For Russia, the situation is profoundly awkward,” said Fyodor Lukyanov. “Venezuela is a key ally and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have long-term relations, leaving Moscow with little choice but to voice condemnation. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so distant is simply impossible – for technical and logistical reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a more practical calculation. Putin's priority, analysts say, is Ukraine – and keeping a good relationship with the US administration on that issue greatly exceeds the fate of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a lesser priority,” Lukyanov added.

Concrete Losses and Emerging Risks

Nevertheless, Russia's loss of Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

Those include S-300VM anti-aircraft systems delivered in 2013, as well as an unknown quantity of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also provided billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: US access to Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'friends' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their plan will be to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Dark Optimism

Yet, some in Moscow see room for a bleak kind of optimism. The US seizure of Maduro, they contend, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had nothing to do with drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is evidently more powerful than ordinary justice.”